(no subject)

[catslash]

Over at redsox, we have a guy who's been writing up previews for each series this year. He got around to this one a little late, so I decided to take a crack at it. I enjoyed writing it, as comparing and contrasting the strengths and weaknesses of two teams I know well is very interesting, and I'm kind of pleased with how it came out, so I'm sharing it here.

It's written for Sox fans, so it won't tell you Tigers fans much you don't know, but feel free to read it anyway. ;)



Quick recap of what the Red Sox have done since last week's series:

Split the series with the Los Angeles Angels of Blah Blah Blah -
13-4 Loss (Wake started, giving up six run and seven hits in four and a third innings. The bullpen did not help. This game killed Boston's nine-game streak of getting five or more runs.)
4-3 Win (Clement had a terrific start, one run and six hits in seven innings. We had a lead, Timlin gave it up, but Schilling threw two perfect innings and then Manny sent home the winning run in the tenth. Also, Papi was finally ejected for his tendency to argue every single called third strike.)
4-2 Loss (Two very good starts, but Ervin Santana had the edge over Bronson, and again with the bullpen not helping.)
5-1 Win (They had us shut down for seven innings, but we cracked their bullpen with a three-run homer from Rents and a two run homer from Manny. Jon "Call Me Jonathan" Papelbon threw five and two-thirds shutout innings, and the bullpen? HELPED. Schilling decided to celebrate his last outing as closer by giving up his obligatory one run, but that's okay.)

Dropped the series to the Royals, like you guys need reminding -
5-2 Win (David Wells was clearly feeling better, allowing five hits in five innings. I slept through most of this game, turned it on, saw the 5-0 score, and failed to turn it back off, so you guys can blame me for Timlin if you like.)
4-3 Loss (Extra innings. Wasted loaded bases twice. Dunno about you, but I don't care to dwell, thanks.) [Edit: jeffstidstone tells me we wasted THREE loaded bases opportunities. I kind of liked my version of events better. =P]
7-4 Loss (Schilling returned to the rotation and did about what I expected, considering it was his first start since late April. capheine is right, let's not panic just yet.)

Quick recap of what the Tigers have done since last week's series:

Swept the Blue Jays:
9-5 Win (Mike Maroth had a decent start here, giving up four runs and ten hits and six and two-thirds innings. That may not sound so swell, but when your offense gets five homeruns to drive in six runs, you can afford to give up a few hits. Two of those runs came from Carlos Peña, who came back up from AAA Toledo after Carlos Guillen went on the DL. Or maybe he came up to fill in for Rondell White after he went on the DL. Either way, Peña came up hot and has stayed that way.)
3-2 Win (This game went thirteen freaking innings. Jason Johnson had one of his best starts of the year, going eight innings for the first time in twenty-five starts and giving up two runs and four hits. Then the bullpen, which can be as frightening as the Red Sox pen at times, really stepped it up and held the Jays to one hit in five innings untl Magglio Ordoñez finally sent home the winning run.)
17-6 Win (Peña started things off with a three-run homer, and things just got ridiculous. Everyone got a hit. The Blue Jays pitchers wept brokenly between throws. Sean Douglass threw a shutout until his brain abruptly exploded in the seventh, but by then we could afford the four runs.)

Dropped a series to the Oakland A's -
4-1 Win (Nate Robertson had a start similar to his one against the Sox last week, only this time it was even better, one run and two hits in eight innings,
and he actually got the win. Amazing. Meanwhile, Peña again: he drove in all four Tigers runs on two homers.)
9-2 Loss (This game gave us the terrifying spectacle of our ace, Jeremy Bonderman, taking a hard line drive to the wrist of his pitching arm and dropping to the ground in agony. Somehow, he is okay - it's just a bruise. Even before that, though, he wasn't doing so well - gave up four runs before he came out in the fourth - and after that the boys just didn't have the heart to play catch-up.)
11-1 Loss (Man, do I have to? Barry Zito kicked ass. Mike Maroth did not. Fans watched through their fingers and ended up just being happy our boys weren't shut out. The end.)



So that's where we are. The Red Sox had three wins in seven, the Tigers had four wins in six. Both team are coming off embarrassing series losses. I'd call the Sox series worse - losing to the Royals? At least the Tigers got crushed by a contending team. On the other hand, inasmuch as these things matter, we are going back to Fenway, where the Sox have a much better record, and where the Tigers have yet to play this year.



Pitching Match-Ups:

Tim Wakefield (12-10, 4.29 ERA) vs Jason Johnson (7-9, 4.09 ERA)
Wake is coming off a poor start, and Johnson a brilliant one. But you know what, these are both pitchers who make me nervous. If Wake's knuckleball isn't on, neither is he, but if it is, you can't touch him. On the other hand, you never really know if Johnson is going to come out and throw a beautiful game or if he's going to squeeze out four difference-making runs in an inning. I call this the Battle of the Inconsistent Starters, and I have no damn idea what's going to happen tonight.

Bronson Arroyo (10-9, 4.19 ERA) vs Sean Douglass (5-2, 4.76 ERA) REDUX
Douglass didn't win the last game he started against the Red Sox (yeah, that would be that game), but again, he was pretty solid through most of his last start. Bronson had a great start last time out. Frankly, given each pitcher's track record this year, I'm more inclined to go with Douglass here - he's been consistently terrific for the Tigers, and Bronson's been pretty spotty this year. In the last couple of starts for each, though, Bronson has been better, so we'll see.

David Wells (10-6, 4.53 ERA) vs Nate Robertson (6-10, 3.85 ERA)
Guys, ignore Robertson's win/loss record. Remember how the Red Sox won the game he started in spite of his amazing performance, all because Alan Trammell experienced a brain fart and forgot what a complete game is? That is the kind of thing that has been happening to Nate ALL YEAR. Half those losses and no-decisions have nothing to do with his performances - hell, one of the losses was a 1-0 CG against the Yankees. Nate's had a brilliant last couple of outings, too. It's a little harder to judge Boomer's last couple of starts; he was, after all, sick as a dog during that awful start against the Tigers last week. Obviously, though, he was feeling much better for his last start, and he's been one of the most consistent starters for the Red Sox in the last couple of months. This, like his start against Bonderman, has the potential to be a pitchers duel.



Things You Need to Know About the Tigers Offense:

* I've mentioned Carlos Peña. He's been so unreal that yesterday when he failed to homer, my friends and I were kidding around: "Send him back down! Send him back down!" He is aggressive and he is not kidding around here; he started the year with the Tigers, kind of sucked, and clearly wants to make everything he can of this chance to make his case for staying in the majors, whether with the Tigers or another team.

* Brandon Inge, who was white-hot at the beginning of the year, has been deeply mired in a very, very prolonged slump, but he's starting to come out of it. He's done quite well in the past week (I think the number the announcers gave us a couple days ago was .538 BA since the Tigers got it together and started winning again) and could well finally be returning to form.

* Ivan Rodriguez has also looked better since coming back from his hip flexor thing. Yeah, I know, you're saying, "Hi, this is Pudge Rodriguez, what is 'better' for Pudge Rodriguez?" Two actual homers in the past week, that's what. Between his divorce and the broken bones in his hands (no, really), he's been putting up very un-Pudge-like numbers this year, but he's been getting some nice hits recently. This is very encouraging to see. On the other hand, he has a whole SIX walks on the year, so don't look for him to be too awful patient at bat.

* Other scary hitters: Magglio Ordoñez, Chris Shelton, Placido Polanco, Dmitri Young. Honestly, every time I think about the Tigers lineup, I become increasingly mystified by their inability to get up to .500 and stay there.

* Pudge is not the only Tigers hitter who won't walk. I'm sure you noticed how impatient they are as a team, with lots of hacking. A Tigers walk is a thing to be celebrated; a game with multiple Tigers walks is a thing to mark on your calendar.

* The Tigers power hitters have, in the last week at home, hit lots of very, very long flyouts in Comerica that would have been homeruns in a park not so mutantly enormous. I am very curious to see what they will do in smaller Fenway.



Things You Need to Know About the Red Sox Offense:

* You already do. ;)



The Bullpens:

NO MAKE THEM GO AWAY. The Tigers bullpen has, in the past week, been much more solid than usual, and certainly better than the Red Sox bullpen, but I still don't trust any reliever on either team as far as I could throw him. This is probably not entirely fair, but I've spent the year getting hives from my bullpens, so cut me some slack.



Random Fact That Doesn't Really Fit Anywhere Else:

* The Tigers have been inducing and turning tons of doubleplays lately. The Sox have a remarkable talent for getting into doubleplays. This is something else I find interesting, and am curious to see how it will play out.



So in conclusion, I am predicting nothing, because last time around I quite confidently and at some length predicted a Red Sox sweep, and we know how that went.

This is the first time I have done anything this in depth, so if you read it, please let me know what you thought. Was it informative? Was it useless? Was it entertaining? Do I suck? Do I even know what I'm talking about? Do you have anything to add?

Thanks!

Comments

[americanleaguer.livejournal.com]

Argh why did Pudge expand his strikezone this year why why why. I mean, fucking hell, he's never been one to walk that much, but this season is just ridiculous. You are not hitting like Jeff Francoeur, Pudge, it would probably be helpful to take some walks here and there!

I liked this, very informative, very smart. Sort of encapsulated everything I wanted to think about before this series.

[catslash.livejournal.com]

That six walks thing is my favorite Stupid Baseball Fact of the Year. It's even better than Brandon Inge being right up there with Bellhorn for strikeouts.

Glad you liked this. =D Check out sinsterminister's preview (http://www.livejournal.com/community/redsox/2288407.html), too - it's intriguing to see the perspective of a SABR guy and non-Tigers fan.